Saturday, September 17, 2016

The Syrian Cease-Fire and Russia's Game of Incremental Escalation


One week ago, Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov agreed upon a bilateral cease-fire agreement for the Syrian civil war. When the cease-fire went into effect this past Monday, the pact marked the fifth such attempt (and the third made by Kerry and Lavrov) to attenuate the sanguinary conflict and push stability into a brutal war-zone.

While the attempts to quell the conflict (even temporarily) are perhaps admirable, it is evident that Moscow has no interest in resolution. After all, the Russians see any possible conclusion to the civil war as involving the abdication of the Al-Assad regime, in which they have invested heavily. But, the Russians also hope to continue the conflict in order to accomplish their strategic goals in the region. But what are these interests, and what do they mean for American foreign policy?